Mapping pathways for resilience: Insights for Uganda’s biodiversity and communities

Described as the “pearl of Africa”, it is home to fertile lands that grow some of the world’s best coffee beans and sustain a variety of ecosystems, dense forests, and scenic tourist spots.

Uganda’s economy has been steadily growing—its trajectory intertwined with the growing use of the country’s natural resources. However, climate change—along with the increasing strain on ecosystems and biodiversity—may threaten Uganda’s engine of economic growth in future.

For this reason, the British High Commission in Kampala recognised sustainable land use and biodiversity conservation as a cornerstone of sustainable development. As part of its broader portfolio planning, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) is exploring new options to support Uganda’s efforts to address biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, while promoting inclusive and climate-resilient economic development.

Funded by the FCDO's Evidence Fund, NIRAS was contracted to conduct a landscape-level appraisal and political-economy analysis to inform future conservation programming in Uganda. The resulting reports outline potential implementation pathways under varying levels of ambition and funding, estimate the value of ecosystem services in situ, and provide recommendations for integrating community livelihood development into conservation efforts.

These findings are intended to inform strategic decision-making within FCDO’s Uganda portfolio. The research team would like to extend their gratitude to all individuals and organisations that made time to engage with the research for their valuable insights.

Contrasting conservation landscapes

Two landscapes, Southern Karamoja and Murchison Falls National Park, were prioritised from a pool of five after evaluating their biodiversity value, community livelihood development needs, drivers of habitat loss, and opportunities for FCDO to complement existing Government and development partner activities. Political, social, and economic analyses were then conducted on these two landscapes.

A typical Karamojong village in the northeast of Uganda.

The Murchison Falls is an important ecological site.

The Southern Karamoja region covers nine districts bordering the 2,788-square-kilometre Pian Upe Wild-life Reserve, Uganda’s largest wildlife reserve. The reserve is home to critically endangered species and important wetland and freshwater habitats.

While the region is sparsely populated, overgrazing and agricultural expansion have degraded grasslands even in protected areas, costing GBP 26 million (approximately EUR 30 million) in lost ecosystem service value each year. This strain has been exacerbated by a history of marginalisation and breaches of public trust, sparking deep doubts about formal state interventions in an area where 65.7% of residents live below the poverty line.

Meanwhile, the Murchison landscape is moderately populated. It is home to Uganda’s eighth-largest city, Gulu, and dominated by a 3,893-square-kilometre national park, the biggest protected area in the country. The park and its surrounding areas, a patchwork of savannah and woodlands, contains unique plant and animal species.

Areas in Murchison close to the Albert Nile encompass freshwater and wetland ecosystems along with fisheries. Yet, forests are being lost at an alarming rate—representing an annual ecosystem service value loss of GBP 91 million (approximately EUR 105 million)—due to agricultural and human settlement expansion, as well as risks associated with increased oil extraction and infrastructure developments.

Murchison and Southern Karamoja, while both ecologically significant and facing acute socio-economic vulnerabilities, were chosen for this study due to their contrasting characteristics. This contrast enables the team to test different approaches across a broader range of scenarios.

Project goals

Based on the market systems development thinking, the study aimed to work out how to “make the markets work for people, climate, and nature” through:

People goals: Poverty reduction and improvement of resilience through household income increase.
Nature goals: Avoiding ecosystem loss and generating ecosystem service values through landscape conservation efforts.

The assignment was anchored on two overarching questions answered through field research in the two prioritised areas: how is the economy of Uganda embedded in nature, and how can the FCDO tackle problems arising from this in an effective way?

Mt. Moroto, one of the most defining landmarks in the Ugandan region of Karamoja.

Achieving project goals will also depend heavily on Uganda’s governance landscape, with land and resource management shared in an interplay among formal, informal, and socio-cultural institutions.

Policies emanate from strong, centralised authorities, yet are:

Impacted by fragmented institutional mandates;
Lack capacity and resources for implementation;
Subject to informal influence networks.

Another aspect to consider are customary governance systems, which have served some authority in resource use and management but are now pressured by existing statutory systems and economic change.

Enhancing coordination and engagement across all stakeholders is essential for making future interventions more effective.

How Uganda's economy is embedded in nature

Communities in both landscapes depend on livelihoods intertwined with the environment. Most households depend on activities such as livestock rearing, agriculture, and charcoal production—enterprises that rely on healthy ecosystems yet also drive their degradation. The study identified three key livelihood sectors per landscape that are most relevant for interventions:

Southern Karamoja

Livestock rearing: Main livelihood and income source but causes overgrazing and grass-land degradation.
Agriculture: Secondary livelihood that complements livestock; emerges as a threat to grasslands and wetlands to a lesser extent than in Murchison.
Charcoal production: A vital income source for the poor, especially in forest-edge areas; drives deforestation in reserves and savannah areas.

Murchison

Agriculture: Dominant livelihood and key to poverty reduction; drives forest and wetland loss in the vital Murchison-Madi corridor.
Charcoal production: A readily accessible income source for poor households but is the main cause of deforestation in reserves and wildlife corridors.
Tourism and sport hunting: Provides jobs in the Murchison FNP and incentivises conservation, showing a way forward in sustainable, nature-positive livelihoods.

The project’s analysis across these sectors points out a need to shift economic incentives towards sustainable resource use using a market systems development approach. The study recommended that HMG programming focus on transitioning households away from resource-degrading livelihoods, supporting nature-positive sectors such as ecotourism, and engaging constructively with extractive industries to mitigate ecological impacts while exploring opportunities for conservation finance.

Various ecosystems are nurtured inside the Murchison Falls National Park, a protected area.

Ensuring programme success in Uganda

Through extensive research and fieldwork, the team identified several key considerations to inform the design and implementation of future FCDO programming in Uganda. Conservation outcomes are at their strongest when community well-being is linked to secure land rights, inclusive decision-making, and sustainable livelihoods that are also communicated in an inclusive and trustworthy manner.

Strengthening local governance institutions and stakeholder networks will be vital, as well as treating restoration and conservation as complementary strategies by combining sustainable resource use with restoration activities. Defining the largest possible landscape for intervention will also offer the most cost-effective approach while boosting climate resilience and biodiversity protection.

To be effective, conservation programmes will need to navigate challenges in the local landscape, including insecure land tenure, elite capture, weak governance, exclusion of women and youth, human—wildlife conflict and market volatility. Additionally, FCDO can leverage strengths in political dialogue, convening power, integrated programming, adaptive management, and access to UK expertise and investment to address these risks and maximise impact.

Uganda’s abundant natural resources have powered its growth, but climate change and other pressures now threaten its ability to thrive in future. Guided by evidence and best conservation practices, this study equips stakeholders with evidence to address urgent biodiversity challenges, laying the foundation for a sustainable, inclusive, and climate-resilient future.

Different implementation scenarios

High budget scenario, approximately GBP 37 million (or EUR 42 million): Enable the programme in both landscapes with potential expansions; will operationalise all three pillars.
Medium budget scenario, approximately GBP 15-25 million (or EUR 17-29 million): Can either intervene in both landscapes but with reduced intensity in all pillars; reduce full implementation of all pillars into one landscape; or reduce sustainable livelihood interventions (Pillar 2) for retaining key policy interventions (Pillar 3) for both landscapes.
Low budget scenario, approximately GBP 5-15 million (or EUR 6-17 million): Either engage in a specific area or focus on policy interventions (Pillar 3).