East, Central and Southern Africa Observatory

Launched in 2026, NIRAS implements the East, Central and Southern Africa Observatory on behalf of the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS) of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces. The Observatory’s objective is to generate original, up-to-date knowledge to support the development of France’s strategy in the region. Its work is structured around four thematic pillars: power dynamics and geoeconomic competition; democracy, political transitions and socio-economic issues; political violence, conflict and terrorism; and security architecture and crisis management. 

The Observatory complements the Francophone Africa Observatory, which NIRAS has implemented since 2023. It draws on a lean core team and an extensive network of African, French and international researchers to deliver rigorous, field-grounded analysis of direct use to decision-makers. 

Research notes to unpack regional dynamics 

At the core of the Observatory, four research notes are produced each year on topics agreed with the Ministry in light of current developments and strategic priorities. Each note is written by a recognised expert on the subject, undergoes thorough quality assurance and is accompanied by a summary in French and English.

Published notes are available for download below. 

Briefings for the Ministry of the Armed Forces 

Within a month of submission, each note is presented orally to the Ministry of the Armed Forces by its authors. Held in a closed-door format under the Chatham House Rule, these sessions foster direct dialogue between researchers and the relevant departments.  

An annual policy café 

Each year, the Observatory also hosts a policy café (café-débat) that brings together researchers and practitioners around a theme agreed with the Ministry. Held in a restricted format under the Chatham House Rule, these exchanges allow academic analysis and practitioner perspectives to be discussed openly and tested against each other. The first policy café took place in June 2026. 

An annual seminar 

The highlight of the Observatory’s calendar, the annual seminar is a half-day, invitation-only event bringing together researchers, experts and institutional representatives. The first edition takes place in December 2026 and examines the role of illicit trafficking and organised crime in fuelling conflict in Central, East and Southern Africa, structured around two panel discussions: one on emerging trends, the other on state responses. 

A lean core team backed by a broad network of experts 

The Observatory operates on a “one-stop shop” model: each request is handled by the management team, which identifies the relevant experts and oversees follow-up through to delivery. The Observatory is directed by Grégory Chauzal (NIRAS) and coordinated by Jean-Nicolas Bach, a specialist on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, and Romain Esmenjaud, a specialist in peace and security in Central Africa. Marie Bonnet (NIRAS) is responsible for project management. Regional focal points – doctoral and postdoctoral researchers – provide close, on-the-ground monitoring of each of the three sub-regions. The team draws on a pool of experts (academics, former diplomats and international organisation staff, former military officers and think-tank researchers), as well as a professional cartographer who produces the maps accompanying the notes. 

What’s next? 

Upcoming notes will focus on the Comoros (late 2026), followed by the port development strategies of China, India and the United Arab Emirates in the south-western Indian Ocean and their implications for French interests in the region (early 2027). In parallel, the Observatory will raise its profile, notably through a quarterly newsletter and LinkedIn posts. This page will be updated as new publications are released.