Insight
Mrs Kassaye Baye, a beneficiary of AgroBIG. Photo: Mr Akanaw Abebaw, AgroBIG Focal from Dera Woreda, Qorata Kebele
Earlier this year, Petra Mikkolainen published a blog and discussion papers on futures-sensitive evaluation where she argued that, in a world characterised by constant change and uncertainty, relying solely on past experience to guide actions may no longer be sufficient. Petra believes "traditional" monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) methods – where the assumption is made that what has worked or not worked in the past will continue to hold true in the future – is increasingly problematic.
With 13 years of M&E experience in projects related to value chains, food security, agribusiness development, women's empowerment, and job creation for young people and underrepresented groups, Mezgebu Werku himself had been exploring the combination of MEL with futures thinking, with the aim of creating more sustainable and impactful projects in the long run.
Reading Petra’s work, he discovered the invaluable tools and terminology of foresight and futures literacy and considered why and how this approach could be applied in the context of the AgroBIG programme where he is the chief MEL advisor.
As I reflect on my experiences in Ethiopian society, the word "dynamic" comes to mind. It's a society that has witnessed remarkable economic growth over the past decades yet has also grappled with increasing political turmoil in recent times. This unique blend of factors creates a societal context that simply cannot be ignored when it comes to the implementation of development cooperation. Working within AgroBIG, I've come to realise that the ability to anticipate possible future scenarios is essential. Foresight offer the means to navigate the complex landscape of Ethiopian society and ensure our efforts align with the changing dynamics of the country.
Mezgebu Werku, Monitoring and Evaluation Advisor, AgroBIG
What is programme monitoring?
Programme monitoring refers to the systematic and ongoing process of collecting, analysing, and using data to assess the progress, performance, and outcomes of program activities. It involves the regular tracking of various aspects of the intervention to ensure that it is on track towards achieving its objectives and desired outcomes.
AgroBIG is a joint initiative between the Ethiopian and Finnish governments launched a decade ago aimed at promoting agribusiness development. The programme’s first phase focused on organisational development and partnership building in the Amhara region, supporting capacity building and providing access to finance for value chain actors in the selected value chains such as rice, onion and maise. Ending in December this year, the second phase, with a budget of €10.3 million, sustains the achievements of Phase I and strengthens agribusiness in the Tana sub-basin. It has an expanded target area and supports a total of eight agricultural production administrative woredas, and additional value chains such as tomato, dairy milk, goat and sheep fattening, and egg and poultry meat production. AgroBIG emphasises value addition, job creation, and market linkages, while promoting the inclusion of women, youth and persons with disabilities (PwD). The value chain approach addresses bottlenecks and supports various actors in adding value to their produce, improving competitiveness and profitability.
AgroBIG's monitoring approach and activities has focussed on different stages of the agricultural value chains, from production and processing to marketing and distribution. It involved monitoring key indicators and variables related to agricultural practices, input availability, productivity, quality standards, market dynamics, and income generation, among others. The programme has employed a diverse range of participatory techniques, including external evaluations and studies by short-term consultants, regular reviews conducted with technical and steering committees, as well as annual surveys on selected indicators. These practices served to inform project stakeholders about both the achievements made and the persistent issues that require attention
In retrospect, Mezgebu believes there are many ways in which AgroBIG could have benefitted from futures-thinking.
One of AgroBIG’s objectives was to enhance access to finance and financial services and one of the main ways it has done this is by providing two types of loans. The first was targeted at women and youth with small business ventures to help clients engage with the traders and to create income and jobs. The second were cooperative loans meant to increase the purchasing power that enables cooperatives to buy agricultural produce from members and to provide services.
With respect to these loan funds, in order to effectively combine futures-thinking with monitoring, it is essential to pose questions that require imagination and consideration of potential future scenarios while also examining current trends and evidence-based practices. For example:
An AgroBIG beneficiary of women's cooperative, Amhara, Ethiopia. Photo: Petra Mikkolainen, 2019
To improve the quality, volume, and marketability of vegetables, AgroBIG has supported the Farmer Field School (FFS) scheme together with Horti-LIFE (Horticultural Livelihoods, Innovation and Food Safety in Ethiopia – a project hosted by SNV Netherlands Development Organisation) and the Amhara Region Bureau of Agriculture. Originally designed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the FFS scheme helps horticulture farmers learn new production practices that improve productivity, product quality and, thereby, competitiveness. Apart from improving the quality of the supply, pioneering farmers, who are ready to invest more in their business also create genuine demand for high-quality seed and other inputs that the suppliers can, in turn, respond to with competitive terms once the required volumes are adequate.
In looking at the nexus between futures-thinking and monitoring of the FFS scheme, some possible questions for further exploration include:
In recent years, the Ethiopian Government and development partners have been working to establish agro-processing centres and rural transformation centres in order to support farmers in producing market-oriented products. In monitoring and evaluating the success of this approach, some futures-thinking questions could include:
Agricultural cooperative supported by AgroBIG in Amhara, Ethiopia. Photo: Petra Mikkolainen, 2019
Monitoring megatrends, weak signals, and scenario-building are powerful tools. Going beyond, practising futures literacy, for example, in a Futures Literacy Laboratory, involves various exercises like mental warming-up, describing probable and desired futures, challenging assumptions, reframing, defining a new vision, and outlining concrete actions for its realisation. This enhances foresight and enables critical thinking, imagination, and proactive decision-making for a better future, which can be applied across various contexts, ranging from programme beneficiaries to donor organisations.
If we want to have an impact on the way society evolves, it's important to be able to imagine the future we desire. By having foresight and cultivating a sense of futures literacy, we can better understand the possibilities and actively shape the direction in which society develops.
If this blog resonated with you, we’d love to hear your insights and experiences, including examples of situations where foresight could have been applied as a part of program monitoring.
Connect with Mezgebu on LinkedIn. And for more information on AgroBIG, visit agrobig.org.
Read "Evaluation Must Become Future-Sensitive" here
